What Does Variance Mean in Poker?
Variance in poker refers to the statistical measure of the deviation between expected and actual results during play. It accounts for the natural swings of winning and losing, influenced by chance, over a short term. High variance games have bigger swings, while low variance games have smaller, steadier results. Understanding variance helps players manage their bankroll and set realistic expectations. Online poker offers a platform to experience these swings firsthand.
When You Might Hear Or Use The Term Variance
Variance is commonly mentioned when discussing the unpredictability of poker results, especially during streaks of bad beats or unexpected wins. Players often refer to variance when evaluating their performance over a series of hands or sessions.
In-Game Example
You’re playing a tournament and get knocked out early with pocket aces against pocket kings. Despite making the statistically correct play, the variance resulted in your loss due to a king hitting the board.
Strategy / Tips
Best Practice: Use variance to inform your bankroll management strategy, ensuring you have enough funds to withstand downswings.
Common Mistake: Assuming short-term results reflect your skill level, leading to frustration or overconfidence.
Pro Tips: Accept variance as part of the game and focus on making the best decisions over the long term, where skill prevails over luck.
Differences Playing Over the Table vs Online
Variance can feel more pronounced online due to the increased number of hands played in a shorter timeframe. In live games, the slower pace allows for more observation and adaptation to variance.
Alternative Names
Swings, Downswings, Upswings
FAQs
Q: How can I cope with variance?
A: Focus on consistent, strategic play and maintain a healthy bankroll to manage downswings.
Q: Does variance affect all poker players equally?
A: Yes, variance affects all players, but skilled players can minimize its impact over time through strategic decisions.
