Tennessee Titans Season Win-Total Breakdown
By Bob Garcia
Win Total Line: 9.5
Over Price: -113
Under Price: -107
Looking at the Tennessee Titans’ 2021 NFL Win-Totals betting line, the price is skewed slightly to the over 9.5 at -113, unsurprising considering the Titans’ trade for Julio Jones was the news of the off-season, with the team doing well to minimize their losses in the trade by giving away just a second and fourth round pick while getting a sixth rounder back. The Titans now have a menacing one-two punch on the outside with the future hall-of-famer Jones at WR1 and All-Star AJ Brown at WR2. And with Derrick Henry bulldozing from the backfield and one of the most efficient quarterbacks over the past two seasons manning the line, the offense will have the potential to blow opponents out of the water each and every week.
With that said, the issues surrounding running-back health are well documented, and that’s doubly true for backs like Henry, who shoulder a massive role in the offense. The question then becomes, if Henry should be forced to miss significant time this season, can Tannehill’s efficiency remain as good as it’s been once defenses are no longer forced to load the box? Adding Julio to their receiving core will no doubt help mitigate some of that, but under a non-ideal situation would anyone be all that surprised seeing Tannehill regress back towards the QB he was before arriving in Tennessee, at least partially?
Additionally, while the defense no doubt got better after a number of signings this off-season, it seems unlikely they got good enough to permit the offense much room for error after giving up the 4th most yards per play last season. So while it won’t be a big surprise seeing them come out of a weak AFC South, in order to make a real run at the title, their offensive efficiency—as well as Derrick Henry’s body—will need to play way up to expectations. And with their win-total betting line getting juiced up to over 9.5 wins, there may be some value in going a little bit contrarian and taking the under.