Betting prediction for Super Bowl 55

Betting prediction for Super Bowl 55

We’re just two days away from Christmas Day for football fans and bettors. We’re of course talking about Super Bowl 55 this Sunday between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The current odds at the Americas Cardroom sportsbook have Kansas City favored by three points, with bettors having to pay a little extra -115 juice. The total is 56 points. Note there are also hundreds of props bets available as well.

The big storyline to this game is the quarterback matchup of Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes. The former is most accomplished signal caller (6 rings) in NFL history, while the latter appears to be the heir to the throne while also being the defending champion.

There’s so many X’s and O’s that can be analyzed for this game, but I think the biggest question is how much pressure will Tampa Bay’s front-seven be able to put on the Kansas City offense? The pressure can’t come via the blitz because Mahomes will eat that alive, so it will need to come from the four-man rush. Tampa has very good pass rushers and Kansas City’s offensive line is playing undermanned, so the pressure should be significant.

The problem in facing Mahomes is that the defense can do everything right on a play (good pressure, coverage etc.) and he still can get outside the pocket and make a big play with his arm or legs. Even if the defense gets pressure and keeps him in the pocket, Mahomes can throw off his back foot or from a crazy angle and make a big play to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce or someone else.

I’m a little surprised that this spread hasn’t moved to Kansas City -3.5. I attribute that to the aura of Brady with many bettors afraid (and rightfully so) of going against him. I fully understand that feeling, however the hardcore football analysis gives the edge to the Chiefs.

Final Score: Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 27

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