Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz – NBA Picks, Odds, and Predictions
By Yaniv Son
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz
Monday, March 9, 2020 at 9:00 pm
Vivint Smart Home Arena, Utah
With only 3 NBA games on the schedule today, the edges are few and far between and one could make an argument for fading the day completely and awaiting tomorrow’s full 9-game slate. However, if you’re someone who is responsible with their bankroll management and can thus afford to take some low-equity shots every now and again, there are two interesting datasets in play today, though they sit somewhat in opposition to one another, so let’s take a look at those now.
This season, postseason teams playing the 2nd half of a back-to-back have gone 86-56-6 against the first-half moneyline (1H ML), good for 18% ROI and +26 units. Today that team is the Toronto Raptors, who came away with a tight victory in Sacramento last night, with the starters all playing heavy minutes. Fortunately for the Raptors, Utah has struggled in the first half at home this season, putting up just a 14-16 1H ATS record with an even worse 13-17 ATS record in the first-quarter, making this a potentially profitable spot to fade the recreational narrative (‘B2B teams do poorly’) and back Toronto in the 1H.
Over the past 3 seasons, home favorites of 4 or more points who are facing an opponent playing the second-half of a back-to-back (aka The Golden Stat) have gone 283-49 straight-up (SU) including 60-12 so far this season. This is the situation the Utah Jazz find themselves in tonight, having gone 16-5 under this dataset since 2017. Furthermore, Utah leads the league in non-conference matchups with a 20-6 record SU and a 16-9-1 record ATS, making them an interesting full-game moneyline play in this one.
So while I don’t recommend trying to play both ends of these datasets by taking the Raptors 1H and Jazz ML, I do think there is just enough edge there to back the one that lines up best with your own research while continuing to follow stringent bankroll-management guidelines.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there!
The Toronto Raptors are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games on the road
The Toronto Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six in Utah
The Utah Jazz have won 5 consecutive games
The Utah Jazz are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games