Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks – NBA Picks, Odds, and Predictions
OKC Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks
Friday February 28, 2020, at 8:00 pm
Fiserv Stadium, Milwaukee Wisconsin
Today the Milwaukee Bucks take on the OKC Thunder, who are playing the second half of a back-to-back as 10-point dogs, making the Bucks a ‘Golden Stat’ team. Over the past 3 seasons, Golden Stat teams (playing a B2B opponent as a favorite of 4 or more points), have gone an incredible 277-49, including 54-12 so far this season. The only problem with that today is that this stat deals only with moneyline bets, not spread, so unless you want to lay hundreds of dollars just for the possibility of winning one, we need to look for another way to get in the action.
For me, that generally comes down to two options:
1. Wait to catch a line closer to a ML ingame.
2. Use a two-team teaser to, at the very least, close the distance between the spread and moneyline.
In this specific case – when betting on the Bucks – option #1 is somewhat less appealing due to the fact that Milwaukee often holds big leads from start to finish and even when they don’t, in order for them to have a pick’em-type line they’d need to be down by at least 10-15 points, which is never a fun spot to put your money down. That leaves us with option #2, using them as part of a two-team teaser and counting on the newly converted -4.5 line (based on a 5.5 point teaser) to hold up against what should be a tired second-half team coming off the back-to-back (OKC also ranks as just the 14th “best” team in second-half margin at a -0.4 point-differential).
So while both strategies have their merits, I lean towards option #2 in this one, and would look to pair the Bucks spread with another game I like (perhaps the chalk combo of Milwaukee/Toronto) and would potentially look to add another unit ingame if a good situation presented itself.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there.
The Milwaukee Bucks are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games
The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-2 at home vs Western Conference opponents
The OKC Thunder are 21-6 ATS on the road
The OKC Thunder are 11-9 ATS vs Eastern Conference opponents