To 1H Or Not To 1H – NBA Betting Breakdown
Today the Miami Heat is part of a first-half (1H) dataset looking at conference favorites taking on playoff teams that have covered 56% of the time over the past 5 years, including 17-10 so far this season, good for 22% ROI. On the season the Heat rank as the 4th most efficient 1H team in the league at +3.9 points margin of victory and 22-15 against the spread (ATS). With that said, their opponents today – the Brooklyn Nets – have not been 1H slouches either, putting up a 23-13 1H ATS record, but with a much weaker +1.6 points margin of victory.
The last time these two teams met in Brooklyn on December 1st, even though Miami won the first quarter and eventually took down a 3-point victory, they lost the 2nd quarter by 9 points, giving Brooklyn the 1H victory. In fact, the Nets currently hold the second-worst 2H margin of victory in the NBA at a horrific -3.4 points per game, perhaps making the 2H spread the play to make. Still, the dataset presents a profitable 1H betting situation for the Heat in this one, so take your pick between the -1 1H line or the -3.5 game line.
Having said that, the one caveat to this play is that it requires Jimmy Butler to be playing. And although that seems like it should be the case, with no injury in effect and no official news released to the contrary (yet), a number of sites with projected lineups do not have Butler listed in the starting five, so make sure to keep an eye on that before placing your bet.
One potential pivot if Jimmy is indeed declared out are the Milwaukee Bucks who go into Sacramento tonight as 8.5 point favorites and also have a dataset in their favor that’s covered 56% of the time over the past 5 years, good for 10% ROI.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there!
Get in the action and bet on the Heat or Nets directly from your poker account.