Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – NFL Picks, Odds & Prediction – Jan 19, 2020
Sunday January 19, 2020, 6:40 PM EST
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara County, California
From an analytics perspective, there’s a lot to like about the San Francisco 49ers this weekend as they face off against the Green Bay Packers. Not only did SF rank as the 5th highest offense in the NFL in yards per play (vs GB’s 17th), but they also led the league in defensive yards per play (vs GB’s 19th). That kind of domination on both sides of the ball is exactly what one would expect to see out of a potential Super Bowl champion. Additionally, SF had the league’s 4th best first-half points per game (vs GB’s 9th), and did even better in the second half, putting up 2nd highest total in the NFL (vs GB’s 17th).
From a historical perspective, the 49ers have yet another edge, falling under a playoff dataset looking at betting line movement that’s gone 57-21-1 since 2003, including 4-1 so far this post-season (with the only loss coming on Buffalo’s epic second-half meltdown against the Texans).
Taking all that into consideration in addition to the fact that San Francisco absolutely demolished the Packers the last time the two teams less than two months ago, and the -7 line (buy the hook if necessary), appears to be about as +EV of a bet as there will be this playoffs. With that said, anything can happen on any given Sunday so make sure not to over-leverage and always bet responsibly, but taking a 1-3 unit shot on the 49ers (or using them as part of a 6-point teaser or Moneyline parlay) seems completely reasonable given the circumstances.
• San Francisco has gone 14-3 over their last 17 games
• Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs the 49ers
• San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when facing an opponent with a winning record