Early Game Edge – Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
First Quarter: Philadelphia comes into this game ranked as the 3rd best first-quarter home team putting up an average of 30.2 points per game in the first period. Meanwhile, Boston ranks near the bottom of the league, sitting at 23rd in first-quarter road-game scoring at just 25.8 points per game. With that said, 76ers center Joel Embiid will miss today’s game after suffering a nasty finger dislocation earlier this week, making the betting lines much closer than they would be otherwise. Additionally, Boston already beat Philadelphia in first-quarter scoring both times they played one another this season (with the Sixers winning both games), even with Embiid playing both times. Whether that can be chalked up to variance or a hidden edge Celtics wundercoach Brad Stevens has been able to exploit early in games is anybody’s guess, but the data clearly shows Philadelphia should, in theory, have the edge at home early in this one.
First Half: Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia has been able to parlay their first-quarter success into first-half success as well, ranking 7th in first half points at home while putting up the third best first-half margin at +8.6. Meanwhile Boston’s ranking only gets worse, with the Celtics currently sitting in the bottom five for first-half road scoring. Looking at their two head-to-head matchups earlier this season, these two teams split the first-half scoring with the Sixers winning their home-game by 1 point and the Celtics taking down theirs by 3. Once again though, it’s important to note Embiid was playing both times, unlike today, making this one about as close to a tossup as possible. Whether that makes this game a fade. or one to blindly trust the percentages and take the team with the significant ranking edge, is something we’ll each have to decide for ourselves, but if you do plan to play, remember to stay disciplined with your bankroll management and not bet more than you can afford to lose in a spot that’s going to show some significant variance.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there!
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