Betting Low Edge Games – NBA Betting Breakdown
Contrary to what social media touts will have you believe, there’s not a ‘MAX UNIT BOMB’ play available every single day in the world of sports betting. Some days, like today in my opinion, even though there’s a full slate of games on the schedule, the lines seem particularly tight and the edges extremely thin. In those times the options for a responsible sports-bettor are clear: either take the day off and chase the endorphin rush through another outlet like poker or heavy drinking (just kidding on the latter!) or reduce your bet-size and only play the games you feel absolutely best about. With that said, for those who choose the second option, here are two of my “leans” or situations that I consider slightly better than coin-flips at the time of writing.
Lean: Thunder vs Timberwolves Under 219
Reasons: Both teams rank in the top half of defensive efficiency with OKC sitting inside the top 10 for opponent points per game. The Thunder are also the single most profitable road under team in the NBA at 63% while Minnesota home games have gone under 53% of the time. Additionally, Karl Anthony Towns has already been declared out once again and with Steven Adams not being known for his offensive scoring, I think that edge will play out as a stingier defensive battle.
Lean: Trailblazers over Hornets
Portland takes the court today as a Golden Stat team, which means they are facing a road opponent who is playing the second half of a back-to-back as more than 4 point dogs. Under this situation, the home team is 298-65 straight up over the past 3 seasons including 47-14 this season. However, with the Portland moneyline sitting at an unappealing -525 (meaning that we’d need to risk $525 to profit $100), this game works much better as either part of a moneyline parlay, a teaser bringing the spread down to between -3 and -4, or as an in-game live-bet at a better price.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there!
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