3 Golden Stat Teams To Target In NBA Betting Today
If you’ve followed my work either through this blog or on Instagram, you no doubt know that – when it comes to sports betting – there’s no spot I love more than opposing road teams on the second half of a back-to-back (B2B). That’s because over the past 3 seasons, home favorites of 4 or more points facing an opponent playing their second consecutive game have gone an astounding 277-54 including a mind-blowing 26-3 so far this season! That’s right, in nearly 30 opportunities, Golden Stat teams (as I’ve come to label the statistic) have only outright lost 3 games all year. Of course, some of those teams have had moneylines that are essentially unusable when it comes to sports-betting (we’ll see an example of one in a moment), so when a situation comes up where the pricing is right on a Golden Stat team, I rarely miss a chance to back them. With that in mind, let’s look at three such scenarios on tap today and discuss how we can take advantage of them.
Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks
Moneyline Price: -3200
When you’re talking about the best team in the NBA going up against one of the worst, there’s likely not going to be a ton of value to chase, which is exactly the case in this one where you’d need to lay more than $3,000 just to win $100. Not my cup of tea personally, but if you have those Floyd Mayweather-sized bags and want to take a shot, all the power to you.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Utah Jazz
Moneyline Price: -230
This is around the price-point where Golden Stat teams become interesting for me, though in a situation like this where the opposing team is top-tier, I generally prefer to try to catch a better line live ingame within the first half a quarter or so where a small lead for the Jazz can drive the Philly moneyline down substantially. Some of the time, when the Sixers lead end-to-end, this will mean you miss out on an opportunity to take a profitable bet, but I’d rather miss a winning bet than be stuck in one I don’t like. Alternatively, you can choose to take half a unit pregame and add another half live if the right situation presents itself.
Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors
Moneyline Price: -250
A similar situation to the one above except with two weaker teams as opposed to two stronger teams, making the variance a little higher. Once again, a live bet at better odds will reduce our breakeven point for long-term profitability (at -250 we need to win about 70% of the time, while at -150 we only need to win 60% of our bets). Additionally, today presents us with a somewhat unique opportunity to parlay two Golden Stat moneylines at relatively decent odds, with a Hawks/Sixers ML parlay paying out about 1-1 on your money. But remember, counter to what the social media touts will tell you, there is no such thing as a ‘lock’ when it comes to sports-betting (even with the Golden Stat!), so make sure to continue following strict bankroll management guidelines and never wager more than you’re willing to lose.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there!
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