Thanksgiving Tradition – Chicago Bears Vs Detroit Lions Betting Breakdown
After putting up the single best against the spread (ATS) record in the NFL last season, the Chicago Bears are now tied for worst at just 3-8, an embarrassing showing for a team – and more specifically, a quarterback – that was out to prove its value vs market expectations before the season and have thus far failed miserably. Fortunately for them, this week they’ll be going up against a team that not rivals their lack of betting efficiency with a 4-7 ATS record, but, some 48 hours before kickoff, still has no clue who will be throwing the ball come Thanksgiving.
With Matthew Stafford having still not resumed practice and backup QB Jeff Driskel remaining limited with a hamstring injury facing a short week, the odds are increasing third-string quarterback David Blough will be the man tasked with beating a defense giving up the 4th fewest points per game in. But regardless of which QB they go up against, Chicago has to feel comfortable with its game-plan, having already beaten Driskel and these same Lions just 3 weeks ago and now potentially getting to face what can only be seen as a further downgrade of on-field talent.
And with NFL playoff teams facing non-playoff opponents in a conference road matchup having covered the spread 59% of the time over the past 5 years including 15-6-1 so far this season, as well as Thanksgiving favorites going 30-11 ATS since 2005, the edge in this one seems clear. With that said, while the current betting spread of -2.5 seems reasonable enough given the factors discussed above, with Trubisky’s incredible troubles moving the football being the main story-line in Chicago this season (the Bears have put up the 4th fewest yards per game, 5th fewest points per game, and only put up 229 yards the last time these two teams met), the -150 moneyline – which only requires the Bears to win outright 60% of the time to break even – seems a bit more appealing to me.
That’s it for today, bet safe and best of luck out there!
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