So Much Data – Miami Heat Vs Phoenix Suns Betting Breakdown
In my research preparing for the current NBA season, I was able to identify a handful of league referees that, when paired with an opening betting total below the league average, have officiated games hitting the under at a 68% clip over the past two years, going 126-60-1 over that time, good for 31% ROI. Without blowing up his spot, the single most profitable referee in this dataset – having gone 21-7 in favor of the under during the past two seasons, and 2-0 so far in 2019 – will be on the court for tonight’s matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat. However, that dataset alone is not enough reason for me to take a bet, with a lot of analytical noise potentially influencing those numbers, so let’s take a bit of a deeper look at the two teams in question to try to determine whether there is indeed enough edge for us to ride the under in this one.
So far, in a combined 14 games, the Heat and Suns have gone an impressive 4-10 in favor of the under, with the Suns 1-6 O/U record sitting in 4th place in the league behind only Atlanta, Utah, and Orlando. Meanwhile, Miami has hit the under in 4 consecutive games, even while playing with the 8th highest pace in the NBA. And with the Heat playing their 2nd of 3 straight road game against a Western opponent with a prime-time matchup against the Lakers coming up tomorrow, fatigue and load-management will be a legitimate concern for Miami. In fact, underdog Eastern Teams playing in the West on one day’s rest have hit the under 55% of the time over the past 5 years, good for 7% ROI, with Miami being the single most profitable team during that time at 26-11-1.
That’s why, when combining all these data-points, there appears to be a verifiable edge in favor of the under, making it my favorite play on the board today.
That’s it for today, bet safe out there and best of luck!
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