Mile High Upset? Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Betting Breakdown
By Yaniv Son
While it’d be tough finding someone outside of Denver who bet the Nuggets as frequently as I did last season, as a value-bettor rather than a fan, I do look for spots to oppose them as well, even if the opportunity doesn’t come around as frequently. However, today might present exactly such a case, with the red-hot Miami Heat coming into Mile High for a big early-season matchup that should reveal more clues as to who each of these teams really is this year.
The Case For Miami
The real kicker for me, and the reason I was first drawn to this matchup for the Heat, is that the Nuggets do not have a defender I see capable of slowing down Jimmy Butler, who should have a monster day facilitating the offense in Denver tonight. Additionally, Miami’s young guards of Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro are quick enough – and aggressive enough – to put Murray and Harris in some bad spots defensively, and although the Heat’s bigs of Bam Adebyo and Meyers Leonard give up a pretty significant skill edge to Nikola Jokic, they are mobile enough to defend him out beyond the arc, where he does so much of his damage. And if the high-energy Heat can get Nikola in early foul trouble, as they did to Clint Capela in their last game en route to blowing out the Rockets, having +5 points is going to seem like the steal of the season.
The Case For Denver
With that all said, before rushing out to take out a second mortgage to lay on the Heat moneyline, keep in mind that the game does take place at altitude in Denver, where the Nuggets held the best home-record in the NBA last season. And if Jokic can keep himself out of trouble, he should be able to absolutely dominate the paint offensively and make life extremely difficult for Miami’s inside game on the defensive side as well.
Still, I see the Nuggets needing pretty close to a perfect game to win big vs Miami, so I’m more than happy to take the points and also don’t mind it as part of a two-team teaser bet with a team like the Lakers, which would essentially turn LA into a moneyline bet and protect Miami against anything but a blowout.
But regardless of which side you prefer, or what betting approach you choose to take, make sure to practice good bankroll management strategies that will keep you safe for the long-run and risk no more than a max of 5% of your betting bankroll on any one bet.
Bet safe, and best of luck out there!
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