LA Chargers vs Green Bay Packers Betting Breakdown
Looking at the analytics, it seems tough to justify a Chargers victory over the Packers in week 9. LA, which comes off a narrow 4th quarter victory over the reeling Chicago Bears, ranks significantly lower than Green Bay in nearly every offensive statistical category including yards per game, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt, and time of possession. On the defensive side of the ball, the news is not much better for Chargers fans with the Packers leading the way in many key handicapping metrics such as opponent yards per pass attempt, opponent third down conversion percentage, and turnover margin.
And while the Packers have not been without their struggles this season, particularly against the run, the betting line of GB -3 means the Packers only need to win this game outright a hair above 60% of the time in order for our bet to show a profit, something that seems entirely realistic considering Aaron Rodgers will be taking his 4th ranked QBR (quarterback rating) of 106.7 against Philip Rivers’ 19th ranked 92.5. And if the Packers defense can play up to their competition as they did early in the season, the Chargers’ negative turnover margin will become a giant liability as they attempt to keep up with the Packers’ 7th ranked point per game (compared to their own 23rd).
So although the Chargers’ path to victory in this one is clear: dominate the run game and minimize the turnovers, I think the likelier scenario is seeing Philip Rivers’ 0-3 record against the Packers move to 0-4.
EDGE: Green Bay
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