Kansas City Chiefs Vs Denver Broncos Betting Breakdown
The Case For The Chiefs
In Kansas City you have one of, if not the, most explosive offensive teams in the NFL with the reigning league MVP and a head coach with the 8th most coaching wins in NFL history. The Chiefs, who already rank 1st in passing yards per game, may finally get to feature the terrifying trio of Sammy Watkins, Tyreke Hill, and Travis Kelce, the latter of which holds the league-lead in reception yards (editor’s note: Watkins has now officially been ruled out of Week 7 action). And although the Broncos rank fairly well against the pass, when the Chiefs are healthy and Mahomes is on his game, this offense has the ability to be matchup-proof and put up points in bunches regardless of the opposition. This will no doubt be aided by the fact that Denver lost linebacker Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL a couple of weeks back and will be without him for the remainder of the 2019 season, something that was masked by a game against an inept Titans offense last week, but could present a huge problem against this powerful Chiefs attack.
The Case For The Broncos
First off, there are the matters of KC playing on a short week and at altitude. Secondly with four (now 5) Chiefs regulars ruled out including cornerback Kendall Fuller, defensive tackle Chris Jones, offensive tackle Eric Fisher, and guard Andrew Wylie, the Broncos have a clear “health-edge” with only CB Bryce Callahan slated to miss action this week. Most importantly, Denver will have an opportunity to take their turn attacking Kansas City’s much-discussed run defense, which has surrendered the 2nd highest yards per rush attempt in the league. And while the Broncos only rank in the middle of the pack for rushing yards per game, if the Chiefs are unable to at the very least minimize their shortcomings against the run, it could be a big day for Denver RB Phillip Lindsay.
The Betting Line
While most narratives will be about KC playing on a short week, in fact Thursday road favorites – as the Chiefs are in this one – have covered 56% of games for 10% ROI while division opponents have covered 58.3% of the time. With that said, Las Vegas is not in the business of providing so-called layups when it comes to betting lines, and are thus well aware of how attractive such a small KC spread is going to appear to recreational players when facing a 2-4 team. But even with that in mind, I still find myself leaning towards the recreational money side (yikes!), struggling to turn down a line that would have seemed unthinkable just two weeks ago before Denver rattled off two straight wins against a couple of teams in tailspin in the Chargers and Titans. So while this is one of the thinner edges on the schedule this week, if we ran this game back 1000 times, I do see a bet on the Chiefs as being long-term net positive.