Arizona Cardinals Vs New York Giants Betting Breakdown
The Case For The Giants
Although I’ve been on team fade-or-die when it comes to the Giants’ spread this season – a strategy that’s led to a 4-2 record over the first 6 weeks – this matchup is the one that seems closest so far thanks to two key factors:
1. New York appears likely to have most of their starting unit back on the field for the first time in what must seem like ages to Giants fans, with wide receiver Sterling Shepard, running backs Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman, and tight end Evan Engram all looking like they’ll be ready to go come Sunday. And while it hasn’t necessarily been the offensive side of the ball that’s cost the Giants games (though it certainly hasn’t always helped), going up against a defense that’s given up the third-highest average yards per game will make getting back on track immeasurably easier for a New York team in desperate need of a complete 60 minutes of football.
2. Speaking of defense, although most casual fans will look to the return of Barkley and/or Shepard as the key for the Giants this week, I expect TE Evan Engram to be the primary beneficiary, with the Cardinals giving up a league-leading 599 yards and 7 TDs to tight ends this season. For reference, no team has allowed more than 4 TDs to TEs and nearly half have given up one or fewer.
The Case For The Cardinals
According to Pro Football Focus’ WR/CB matchups, Arizona holds 3 of the week’s top 10 matchups with Fitzgerald, Kirk, and Johnson going up against a Giants secondary that’s allowed the 2nd most passing yards per game and 2nd most yards per completion, all while facing a below-average strength of opposing quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Arizona has also begun improving their red-zone conversion-rate, putting up 26 and 34 points in two games vs Cincinnati and Atlanta teams that seem pretty inline with the one they’ll be facing in New York this week. And while the Cardinals’ own secondary has been near the bottom of the league as well, they should be in line for a massive improvement on that front with CB Patrick Peterson finally completing his 6-game suspension.
The Betting Line
Although the edge in this one seems a little thin, with a tough betting schedule on the board across the NFL this week, getting 3 points in a perceived shootout (this game holds the second-highest total of week 7) while betting on the team trending upwards as opposed to down seems like a spot just strong enough to take a conservative one unit shot on the road dogs in the battle for rookie quarterback supremacy.
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