Any Idiot Could Do This
By Bob Garcia
"I pick companies so wonderful an idiot could run them, because at some point, an idiot will run them." – Warren Buffet.
If playing poker is exciting to you, then you’re in the wrong game.
The poker you watch is not real poker.
Most men have a flawed view of sexuality because the only sex they’ve ever witnessed is through pornography.
Most people have a flawed view of poker because they only watch poker on TV and through training videos.
Televised poker is all about the most dramatic hands between the best players. Poker trainers are constantly trying to show you how smart they are through fancy play.
Real profitable poker is boring.
It’s not fun to watch.
You would be bored out of your mind looking over the shoulder of most poker professionals.
And that’s why they’re good.
No one is balancing against you. If you watch poker which is based on balancing theory, then you’re missing out on real profits.
When someone raises you postflop, they usually have two pair or better. Yes, you’re exploitable if you fold top pair there, but in most instances, you’re exploiting them.
If you want to make money at poker, you need a system any idiot could apply. Because at some point, you will play like an idiot.
Everyone goes through problems. Financial turmoil. Divorces. Death in the family. Weight gain. Hell, you just might not wake up in the best mood.
You need a system that works during those times.
"Behind mountains…there are more mountains." – Haitian proverb.
You will always have problems. You need to learn how to play through them.
Having adverse life situations is good for you. It helps you simplify your game.
When things are going well, you tend to overcomplicate your poker. That means there are too many moving parts to manage when things start going wrong.
Generally, if you raise preflop, and no one threebets you, then you’ve made money.
If you threebet, and no one fourbets you, you’ve made money.
If you continuation bet and fold out your opponent’s high cards, you’ve made money.
Never give away a river bet. That is half the game.
15 big blinds is the typical river bet. That’s usually your win rate over 150 hands.
It takes five hours to play 150 hands live.
If you want to cancel five hours of work, go ahead and call rivers when you’re confused.
Conversely, if you ever score a 15 big blind bet on the river with a simple pair, then you’ve stolen five hours of someone’s work.
Be spot on with your river play, and get out of trouble early. That’s most of the game.
If you’re playing in loose games, raise big preflop. If three guys limp in preflop, make it 10X. 15X. Whatever will get one guy to call you or everybody to fold.
One of two things will happen then:
Everybody will fold.
One person will call.
If everybody folds you have just made 4.5 big blinds. That’s most mediocre professionals win rate over 100 hands. You just made that in 22 seconds.
Why are you frustrated everyone folded? Queens doesn’t make 4.5 big blinds on average.
If one person calls you after limping, that is likely the worst player at the table. Most good players are not in the habit of limp/calling 15X.
If you play a big pot in position versus the worst player at the table, then even an idiot could make money in your spot.
Good luck to all of you.